Bitcoin CME Futures have witnessed an $800 gap followed by another $1,000 dip after opening on Sunday. The total gap of $1,800 [-15.51%] was created over the weekend causing Bitcoin CME futures to reach $9,915 from $11,990.The Gap
These gaps play an important role in predicting spot price movements as each of these gaps eventually gets filled. Considering the weekly close on Jul 14, things do not look good for Bitcoin, as the weekly candle was dripping red [-24%]. As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin’s price needs to resolve all areas of potential price discovery available to buyers and sellers.
So far, the gaps formed have been successfully filled, except for the gap formed on June 15 and June 16, from $9,055 to $8,495. There is slight hiccup before Bitcoin proceeds to go this deep – the resistance at $9,915, which has held up for more than 20 days, and tested 3 times. If this level is broken by the bears, the probability of the price tanking further down is highly likely.
The total open interest for BTC CME Futures as of June 09, is 6,075; what’s interesting is the position of ‘other Reportables’ and ‘Leveraged Funds’, which are short.
A Twitter user @CryptOrca, commented:
“Checking #COT data … hedge funds and large money managers pretty neutral. Its the non. rep. (banks) that are all in short. Looking at $9k for breakeven ????. Shorters have some room to play but i wouldnt get too bearish yet.”
However, if the above-mentioned bearish scenario fails to happen, BTC might proceed higher to resolve the gap formed on July 13, 14, which is, by far, the biggest gap seen.Conclusion
Scenario 1: The price breaks resistance at $9,915, tanks anywhere between $9,068 to $8,503.
Scenario 2: The price respects the resistance, bounces off it and fills the gap formed $11,990 to $10,945.