Bitcoin: Pullbacks will not stop the bull market; will what goes up stay up?

  • 03 July 2019, Wednesday, 03:30

Are you an adrenaline junkie? Do you seek the thrill of adventure? If you do, then the cryptocurrency market is for you.

As much as it sounds like a broken record, it does go to show the extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market. The July 2 pullback which shaved off over 30 percent of Bitcoin’s price and briefly pulled its price below the five-figure mark, is one such illustration.

Peter Brandt, the veteran financial assets trader, recently opined with factual sentiment that fear should not shroud the minds of the uninhibited as the Bitcoin markets of yesteryear have recorded severe pullbacks, with the recent one only qualifying as “mild” in his words. The “parabolic advances” that were a regular occurrence during 2015-2017 saw worse bearish movements.

His full tweet read,

The recent 30.5% correction in BTC is mild compared to the many corrections in the 2015-2017 parabolic advance. $BTC

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 2, 2019

If I were to tell you, in an utterly frenzied & panicked state, that BTC’s price dropped by $170 in over a week, you would slap me silly, and rightfully so. At a time when Bitcoin’s price can move by thousands of dollars in a few days, a mere hundred dollar movement is inconsequential. However, the November 2015 pullback that made it to the top of Brandt’s list was just that, a $170 drop from $480 to $310, resulting in the 41.3% correction.

While 2016, at least early on, saw a fairly sober rise, the end was anything but. Bitcoin went to town during the close of the year, surging from under $350 to almost breaking $1,000.

The remaining corrections were all encompassed within 2017, as the market prepared itself for the December 2017 bull run. Two years ago, between the months of June and July, the market corrected by a whopping 34.6 percent as the price dropped from $2,950 to under $1,900. This may be another minor drop when viewed from a myopic lens, but the large picture dictates otherwise.

A similar trend prior and post this rise was seen in March and November 2017 respectively, when the correction recorded was 31.5 percent and 30.3 percent, placing the recent pullback firmly in between.

Perspective helps contextualize results and with perspective, we see that despite naysayers like Nouriel Roubini trashing the market during its first noticeable blip in months, the bigger goal is unfettered. In less than day since the pullback, Bitcoin is up by over 15 percent over the day, and the altcoins are following suit.

Looking at the bright side, many analysts are even suggesting that this pullback is the “last dip” until November. If this theory does hold true, it would mean four straight bullish months. To put that into context, Bitcoin rose from $4,000 to $13,700 in less than 3 months.

Blocktown Capital’s Managing Partner, James Todaro, suggested the same, adding on to the overarching sentiment which dictates that what goes up, will likely stay up. He tweeted,

Bitcoin just had its first >30% pullback, down from $13,850.

There were 8 pullbacks of this magnitude in the last bull market with an average of 98 days between them.

This could be the last dip until November. #bitcoin

Chart credit @Josh_Rager

— James Todaro (@JamesTodaroMD) July 2, 2019