Bitcoin is playing hide-and-seek with the Libra bears.
For weeks on end, Libra has been the talk of the town, with Bitcoin getting little mention, but large effect. Despite being a Californian product, all news about Facebook’s cryptocurrency project seems to be emanating from Washington D.C., with every lawmaker and regulator taking a shot at the project.
Due to the crypto-esque nature of the Libra project, Bitcoin has been thrown into the mix, with every jibe or accolade that Libra receives, bleeding over into Bitcoin’s price charts. From the initial announcement to the regulatory issues currently plaguing the project, Bitcoin has borne the fluctuations.
When Libra was unveiled last month, Bitcoin saw a massive boost and rose to a YTD high of $13,800. Last week, when the Federal Reserve Chair stated that Libra ‘cannot go forward’ until concerns are met, Bitcoin dropped from $13,000 to $11,500. Following the comments by President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, the price is below $11,000 now.
However, despite the Libra-induced price drops, the larger picture shows that Bitcoin remains steady in the bull market. For the third time in its decade long history, Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA has surged ahead of its 350-day EMA, another indication of Bitcoin’s rapid price movement.
According to chartist Hannes Gruschinski, the “Grand Cycle IV” is a precursor to a new peak. The last crossover of the two MAs happened in late 2015, with the price below $300 at the time. This cycle took Bitcoin to within touching distance of $20,000, before the crypto-winter began.
The reverse crossover of these indicators happened in August 2018, when the bear market was in full swing. Now, nearly a year later the 200 day MA has overtaken the 350 day MA.
It should be noted that the previous “Grand Cycle” began less than 10 months prior to the 2016 block-halving, and with the May 2020 halving only months away, several analysts are expecting a price rise, with this crossover being evidence of the same.
Back in late-April, Bitcoin broke into its ‘Golden Cross’ (when its 50-day moving average overshot the 200-day moving average), which many were looking at as the ‘gateway to the bull market.’ Indeed it was. Since then, Bitcoin has surged by over 120 percent, from $5,500 at the close of April to over $13,500 in June.
This is yet another indication of Bitcoin holding on to the bulls, even as the Libra bears loom.